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[The Oil Drum | A Community Discussion about Peak Oil] Permalink The worst spots in TX for Rita to hit? Resource Page--UPDATED for new forecast tracks (0000z) Posted by Prof. Goose in Supply/Production Wed Sep 21 at 11:49 PM EST I emailed our industry insider that question, here's her response:The worst tracks are those which put landfall between Freeport and Sabine Pass Texas. There are 3 tracks that cross just offshore of the TX/LA border. Those 3 tracks all let the storm hit more rigs and platforms than the tracks that have landfall farther south. The big concentrations of platforms are in the West Cameron, High Island, Galveston, and Matagorda Island offshore areas. Mustang Island and North/South Padre Island offshore areas are less crowded with production. If you want to know what these areas look like and where they are geographically, try the MMS website. They instituted the block layout, naming and leasing stuff. Landfall just east of Houston's center will be right up refinery alley. Another bad spot is right up through Port Arthur...
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[Past Peak] Rita May Be Rude Awakening: The big concentrations of platforms are in the West Cameron, High Island, Galveston, and Matagorda Island offshore areas...Landfall just east of Houston's center will be right up refinery alley. Another bad spot is right up through Port Arthur and Beaumont ” another big refining center...Most of our big plants are in the stretch of coastline between Freeport and Sabine Pass.
[The Oil Drum | A Community Discussion about Peak Oil] the most impressive picture I can find...Rita is now a CAT 5...904MB!: HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STABILIZED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS FARTHER WEST WITH THE CONSENSUS HAVING SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS/GFDL MODELS...SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BASED 22/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATING 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.I read this to mean that the models are now diverging with the generally reliable GFDL model giving us bad news.
[Peakoil.blogspot.com] Peak Oil News: 09/01/2005 - 09/30/2005: Thus, the key oil issue in contemporary class politics in the US is not the one addressed by the Peak Oil/National Security paradigm, viz., the notion that US corporations and workers are economically dependent on an imported commodity that is increasingly becoming more "expensive" and that the political project of our era is to have a US economy self-sufficient in energy. The problem is that a significant minority of US workers see their only secure future in a neoliberal/globalised world with its main recalcitrants—the OPEC countries—policed by a military recruited from the US working class.
[Postcarbon.org] Storm aims for heart of US oil industry: Gas prices may jump ...: Last year's Hurricane Ivan, which came ashore along the Alabama-Florida line moving through an area mostly devoid of rigs, caused widespread destruction both above and below water in the fields off Alabama and eastern Louisiana. Floating rigs were found drifting hundreds of miles from the wells they had been plumbing, while some rigs with legs fixed to the bottom toppled into the sea.
[Peakoil.com] Peak Oil News and Message Boards >> Forums >> Current Events ...: ...The National Hurricane Center showed Katrina skirting key offshore producing fields off the coast of Alabama and Mississippi before making landfall again on the Florida Panhandle Monday.
[Flhurricane.com] Central Florida Hurricane Center 2005: This does not even account for damage done to oil rigs in the Gulf, anything occurring south and southeast of the city near where the storm made landfall, or anything in Mississippi and Alabama (yet alone Florida, Georgia, and shortly Tennessee). The LSU damage estimate predictions -- available at http://www.nola.com/hurricane/content/katrina_projected_flooding082805.pdf -- appear to match very well with what was observed in the city, not a surprise given that these particular projections were run for a 115mph category 3 storm passing over the city -- essentially what the city saw on the west side of a slightly stronger Katrina.
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