The Green Files > Minimal Behavioral Adaptations to Oil Shocks

http://www.theoildrum.com [The Oil Drum | A Community Discussion about Peak Oil] This post is part of a series on the economic response to oil shocks, which I'm doing to gain a deeper insight into likely post-oil-peak economic occurrences. It began with a discussion of the stability of the mix of consumer spending, moved on to consider the productivity and efficiency of transportation, and then dived more deeply into what the US economy did to become less oil intensive. Readers with long memories will also realize the significance of these issues to my decline-rate based model of what might happen to the US economy post peak.

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Econbrowser: As far as the depletion curves over at OilDrum, the two issues I’ve brought up over there are (1) all these depletions curves to date are local, not global, and one cannot assume that the global curve will look anything like the local curves—they could be worse but the higher prices may draw them out, only to drop much more quickly later. And (2) depletion curves are just that, based upon our experience with these local depletions, not taking into account that other sources of energy were available from non-depleting resources. (via Cosmos)

http://danielrhoads.blogspot.com  A Concerned Scientist: Finally, I argue there's a collapse threshold - if the depletion rate goes above this for a sustained period of time, then society will not be able to adjust and will go into collapse (red zone) until some new form of society can be constructed from the ashes of the old (much as happened to the Soviet Union, the Mayans, the Roman Empire, and Easter Island in various guises).So what does this all mean? In short, this is talking about one of the things that I'm concerned about in politics and society today - that of what will happen economically in the coming years as we pass Peak Oil. (via Cosmos)

http://tis.goringe.net  Things I’ve Seen: If depletion goes above this threshold, then we will have sustained economic contraction, but still in a mostly orderly manner .Finally, I argue there's a collapse threshold - if the depletion rate goes above this for a sustained period of time, then society will not be able to adjust and will go into collapse (via Cosmos)

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