The Green Files > Is this the Economic stage of the Peak?
[The Oil Drum | A Community Discussion about Peak Oil] We have wandered through the CERA 2005 and CERA 2006 predictions in earlier posts and they came in at around 2.1 mbd.Chris Skrebowski recently updated his Megaprojects projections, including new estimates for when projects will be on line, and doing some accounting for depletion. It is a little difficult to come up with an exact number from Chris's table since he is starting to show some slippage from the earlier projections on some projects, and some are listed with volumes when they reach full production, but he appears to come out at around 915,000 bd for OPEC and 2.3 mbd from non-OPEC.
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Some related posts from Technorati and Google.
Econbrowser: Some of the big differences appear to be that CERA is expecting about 2.5 mbd more production from Libya, Algeria, and Iraq combined, whereas Skrebowski credited only 0.1 mbd to Algeria and nothing to the other two. The Energy Information Agency shares CERA's assessment about Algeria, expecting it to increase crude production 0.8 mbd by 2010, and notes that Libya has a "goal" of adding 0.4 mbd by 2008-2010 and 1.4 mbd by 2015; (via Cosmos)
[The Oil Drum] Major Oil Projects Revisited or CERA meet ODAC: For those who do not normally follow these things, you may not have heard of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, nor of Chris Skrebowski, who is a Trustee. Which is a pity, because last November they issued a report that led to the headline “New Projects Cannot Meet World Needs this Decade.” (updated here ) And in very large measure this article rebutted, ahead of time, the recent report by CERA that has been given larger circulation and which formed the basis of Daniel Yergin's editorial in the Washington Post yesterday.
[Thefraserdomain.typepad.com] The Energy Blog: Peak Oil: In a long article in Global Public media (GPM), Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, one of the founders of the Association for the Studly of Peak Oil (ASPO) and member of the board of directors of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC), uses this data to give his opinion on the balance between supply and demand.
[Theoildrum.com] The Oil Drum | A Community Discussion about Peak Oil: Grin - well actually if I add up the numbers I cited for total production and giving Primorsk 150,000 bd and Dharkovin 160,000 bd I get a total of 2.68 mbd which is more than the 2.4 mbd that CERA are quoting. So I am not sure how to interpret this yet.
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